How New Immigration Policies Could Impact the CRE Landscape
New Immigration Policies Could Reshape The Labor Market
- Restrictive policies during Trump’s first term led to declining legal immigration, falling from 1 million annually in 2015-2016 to 570,000 by 2019
- Reduced immigration intensified labor shortages, driving wage growth and inflation.
- A similar approach under the new administration could exacerbate labor shortages, with broad economic impacts
Key Industries May Face Heightened Operational Challenges
- Sectors reliant on foreign-born workers — like agriculture and construction — could experience labor supply shortages
- Service-oriented sectors — such as hospitality, food services and health care, are likely to see rising operational costs
Commercial Real Estate Faces Increased Inflationary Risk
- Rising development and operating costs could weigh on property performance, particularly in retail, hospitality, and senior housing.
- Higher wage-driven inflation could pressure the Federal Reserve to maintain elevated interest rates, keeping the cost of debt capital high
*Through 3Q; Share of labor force by industry as of 2023
Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, BLS
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