Is the COVID Pandemic Turning Endemic?

Decline in Covid Risk Causing Shift in Policy

• Covid cases in U.S. falling sharply – From 250 per 100k people last month, to about 30 per 100k in late-February
• As a result, various states are rolling back mask mandates
• Continued decline in Covid cases could further reduce restrictions, providing more fuel to the recovery

Behavior Changes Already Impacting Air Travel

• TSA reported air travel just 8% below pre-pandemic levels
• Overall Hotel occupancy in alignment with pre-Covid rates, but Hotels focused on business travel are lagging
• When Covid becomes endemic, business travel should reemerge, providing momentum for full-service Hotels

Various Property Types Poised To Benefit

• Share of workers in offices climbing after Omicron dip; Decline in restrictions could speed up the return to Office
• Retail would also benefit, particularly experiential businesses, like gyms, restaurants, and movie theaters

As of February 23
Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Real Capital Analytics

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