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Outlook Report

Return to Office Outlook

September 12, 2022 by Marcus & Millichap Research Services

How the Labor Shortage Shapes Commercial Real Estate Trends

Role of Labor Markets in Return-to-Office Decisions

  • Health concerns were original reason for remote work, but worker preferences are now the biggest hurdle
  • Strong job gains continue to support consumption and CRE space demand
  • The U.S. currently has a substantial labor shortage which drives continued remote work trends

What it Could Take to Resolve the Labor Shortage

  • Overall unemployment rate is 3.7% and just 1.9% for college educated workers
  • Severe shift necessary to re-align employment trends

What this Means for Commercial Real Estate?

  • Remote work benefits suburban CRE space demand
  • Return-to-office would boost urban CRE demand
  • Lingering labor shortage a headwind for service staff dependent CRE like hotels and seniors housing

*Through July, Unemployed through August
Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, BLS

Watch the Video Below

 

Filed Under: Research Brief, Outlook Report

CRE Investment Overview and Outlook

June 6, 2022 by Marcus & Millichap Research Services

Commercial Real Estate Investment Hit Record Levels

Favorable Fundamentals Drove Record CRE Transactions

  • Elevated market liquidity, strong property outlooks and inflation resistance drew many investors to CRE properties
  • CRE transactions in 2021 exceeded prior peak by 29%; 1Q 2022 sales activity ahead of prior year
  • Placing downward pressure on cap rates

Aggressive Acquisition Climate Fueling Price Surge

  • Office, MT-Retail and Hotels, which were hard-hit but are starting to recover, saw modest price growth
  • Strong demographic trends and favorable outlooks drove strong price appreciation for Apartment and Self-Storage
  • Record transactions fueled outsized Industrial price gains

Will CRE Transactions Maintain Their Momentum?

  • Strong CRE outlook will continue to support property space demand
  • Stock market volatility may push capital to CRE, sustaining further buyer demand
  • Fast rising interest rates could erode some sales activity

*Pre-Pandemic period: 2019 through 1Q 2022; MT=Multi-Tenant
Includes sales $1 million and greater
Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Real Capital Analytics, CoStar Group, Inc.

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Filed Under: Research Brief, Outlook Report

What the War in Ukraine Means for Commercial Real Estate Investors

March 7, 2022 by Marcus & Millichap Research Services

 

What the War In Ukraine Means for CRE Investments

Sanctions Imposed on Russia Raise Inflationary Risk

  • The sanctions and financial lockdown of Russia will likely curtail Russian exports of oil, gas and metals
  • Likely to result in higher prices for fuel and certain goods, placing upward pressure on inflation
  • Real estates’ general inflation resistance mitigates major impacts, but inflation poses other economic risks

Large Levels of Uncertainty Surround the War

  • Rising uncertainty may drive investors to safer investments, such as bonds and hard assets, like CRE
  • Can place downward pressure on interest rates
  • However, uncertainty may also slow investor decisions and actions; could weigh on CRE transaction activity

Commercial Real Estate Outlook Remains Positive

  • A lot of unknowns remain on the extent and severity of the war, but the implications for CRE are limited
  • Barring major escalations, commercial real estate remains well positioned with strong, underlying demand drivers

*Through January; 10-Year Treasury through March 02
Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Federal Reserve, BEA, BLS

Watch the Video Below

 

Filed Under: Research Brief, Outlook Report

2H21 National Single-Tenant Net-Leased Retail Outlook Report

August 11, 2021 by Marcus & Millichap Research Services

Low Bond Yields and Elevated Inflation Risk Invigorate Buyer Interest in Net-Leased Assets

  • Demand for single-tenant properties to last beyond health crisis. Most of the traditional users of net-leased retail space weathered the pandemic better than many sectors of the real estate market.
  • Retail sales well above pre-pandemic levels. Single-tenant retailers continue to benefit from the influx of stimulus capital pumped into the economy in the wake of the health crisis.
  • Labor shortage hamstrings some sectors. A few states with stringent lockdowns may see restaurant closures near 33 percent, while others may only experience 10 percent losses.
  • Reopening to support single-tenant retailers. As workers return to offices, more visits to single-tenant facilities will aid in retail sales at stores near offices and other establishments that rely on commuters.

Click Here to View the 2H21 National Single-Tenant Net-Leased Retail Outlook Report

*Forecast | Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services; CoStar Group, Inc.; Real Capital Analytics, Capital Economics; Freddie Mac; Moody’s Analytics;
Mortgage Bankers Association; National Association of Realtors; National Association of Home Builders; BLS; Federal Reserve; RealPage, Inc.; U.S. Census Bureau; Wells Fargo

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Filed Under: Outlook Report, Research Brief

National Retail Outlook Report | Midyear 2021

August 11, 2021 by Marcus & Millichap Research Services

Retail Market Recovering More Quickly Than Expected; Investors Selective But Actively Acquiring Properties

  • Retail sector poised for growth. Following the upheaval caused by the health crisis, retail property performance is expected to begin realigning with the new realities of space demand.
  • Consumer spending surge to remain during second half. Since February of 2020, core retail sales have soared by 16.8 percent, largely supported by government stimulus.
  • Job creation potential at record levels. Employers are having a challenging time finding and onboarding workers as the economy transitions out of the health crisis.
  • Bevy of light headwinds persist for retail. Most indicators point toward a better-than-expected recovery for the retail market, though some concerns exist that could impact brick-and-mortar locations.

*Through May
Sources: BLS; Federal Reserve; Office of Financial Research; U.S. Census Bureau

Click Here to View the National Retail Outlook Report Midyear 2021

*Forecast | Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services; CoStar Group, Inc.; Real Capital Analytics, Capital Economics; Freddie Mac; Moody’s Analytics; Mortgage Bankers Association; National Association of Realtors; National Association of Home Builders; BLS; Federal Reserve; RealPage, Inc.; U.S. Census Bureau; Wells Fargo

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Filed Under: Outlook Report, Research Brief

2H21 National Office Outlook Report

August 10, 2021 by Marcus & Millichap Research Services

More Aggressive Demand for Space Likely As Clarity Emerges

  • Economic improvement aids office sector. The U.S. economy has gained traction since inoculations became widespread.
  • Hybrid work arrangements add complexity to space needs. More people becoming fully vaccinated is allowing employees to return to in-office schedules.
  • Updated amenities can enhance leasing efforts. Companies reassessing floor plates may pose challenges for office owners as more sublease space becomes available.
  • Bright outlook for life science office segment. The search for a COVID-19 vaccine sped up an already growing level of demand for office space from biotech and pharmaceutical companies.

Report Includes:

Click Here To View 2H21 National Office Outlook Report

*Forecast | Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services; CoStar Group, Inc.; Real Capital Analytics, Capital Economics; Freddie Mac; Moody’s Analytics;
Mortgage Bankers Association; National Association of Realtors; National Association of Home Builders; BLS; Federal Reserve; RealPage, Inc.; U.S. Census Bureau; Wells Fargo

Follow Jesse Limon CRE on Twitter

Follow MMREIS on Twitter

Filed Under: Outlook Report, Research Brief, Special Report

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This information has been secured from sources we believe to be reliable, but we make no representations or warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy of the information. References to square footage or age are approximate. Buyer must verify the information and bears all risk for any inaccuracies. Any projections, opinions, assumptions or estimates used herein are for example purposes only and do not represent the current or future performance of the property. Marcus & Millichap Real Estate Investment Services is a service mark of Marcus & Millichap Real Estate Investment Services, Inc. © 2020 Marcus & Millichap and Limon Net Lease Group

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