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Archives for December 2022

What the December FED Meeting Means For CRE in 2023

December 19, 2022 by Marcus & Millichap Research Services

Fed Slows The Pace Of Rate Hikes

  • As expected, the Federal Reserve raised the overnight rate 50 bps to a lower bound of 4.25%, following 4 consecutive 75 bps lifts
  • Chairman Powell suggested that the terminal rate may have risen, but set expectations for a slowing pace of increases over the course of 2023

Why Is The Fed Easing Rate Movement

  • While inflation of 7.1% is well above the 2% target, this figure has fallen 110 bps since September
  • Other key indicators like housing, car prices, and gas prices slipped from recent peaks towards the end of 2022

What This Means For CRE Markets

  • Slower, smaller rate increases will reduce uncertainty and give the market time to recalibrate. That will help narrow the buyer/seller expectation gap.
  • If the Fed continues down the path of smaller hikes in 2023 and inflation manages to ease, we could see buyer competition for assets heat up quickly.

*10-Year Treasury through December 14, 2022
Assumes one 25-50 bps hike at the FOMC meeting in February 2023
Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Federal Reserve

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Filed Under: Research Brief

Three Economic Trends to Watch | 1H 2023

December 12, 2022 by Marcus & Millichap Research Services

Three Major Trends That Will impact CRE in 2023

Consumer Sentiment Falling Sharply

  • The Michigan University Consumer Sentiment Index reached a record low in 2022, but is beginning to rise
  • Space demand in the multifamily sector moves closely with consumer sentiment historically, with potential renters making decisions based on their financial expectations

Pandemic-Era Savings Beginning To Pare Down

  • Savings, which had ballooned during the pandemic, have fallen by roughly $400B since August, meaning savings could move back to its historic trend in 2023
  • While consumer credit is still in a manageable range, dwindling savings could weigh on consumer spending in the next 12 months

The Labor Shortage Continues to Limit Growth

  • The gap between job openings and unemployed workers is still at 4.3 million workers, despite the headline grabbing tech layoffs
  • The wide array of open positions suggests the country may continue adding jobs in the coming months despite headwinds in the economy, aiding space demand for CRE

*Through November; Job openings through October
Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, BLS

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Filed Under: Research Brief

The Impact of Congressional Gridlock on CRE

December 5, 2022 by Marcus & Millichap Research Services

How Could the result of the 2022 Midterms Impact CRE?

Election Results Cause Split Congress

  • Republicans and Democrats will each control one chamber of Congress following inaugurations in 2023
  • Split governments generally pass fewer policy changes, resulting in fewer market disruptions

How Do Political Environments Impact CRE Returns?

  • Historically, real estate returns rise 10.8% on average during years with split sessions, a 250-bps premium over years with one party control
  • CRE returns recorded strong and weak during each party’s control, but have consistently been higher during periods with divided government

Implications for CRE Investors in 2023

  • Regardless of the impact of a policy, potential changes impact investors decision making
  • Investors could have 2 years to lock in strategies with few policy changes affecting their playbooks

*Through 3Q
Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, NCREIF

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Filed Under: Research Brief

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This information has been secured from sources we believe to be reliable, but we make no representations or warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy of the information. References to square footage or age are approximate. Buyer must verify the information and bears all risk for any inaccuracies. Any projections, opinions, assumptions or estimates used herein are for example purposes only and do not represent the current or future performance of the property. Marcus & Millichap Real Estate Investment Services is a service mark of Marcus & Millichap Real Estate Investment Services, Inc. © 2020 Marcus & Millichap and Limon Net Lease Group

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