• Skip to primary navigation
  • Skip to main content
  • Skip to primary sidebar
  • Skip to footer
Limon Net Lease Group

Limon Net Lease Group

  • Listings
    • National Listings
    • NYC Metro Listings
  • Who We Are
  • 1031 Exchange
  • Research
  • Financing
  • Services
    • Advisory
    • Capital Markets
    • Marketing
    • Research
    • Technology
  • Contact

Research Brief

Will the 2024 Election Impact Interest Rates

September 19, 2023 by Marcus & Millichap Research Services

WHY THE 2024 ELECTION IS UNLIKELY TO IMPACT LENDING RATES ​

Federal Reserve Does Not React To Politics​

  • Historically, The Fed has both raised and lowered the overnight rate leading up to elections​
  • Data suggests interest rates will move independently of the election year​

No Signs Of Political Bias Either​

  • The Federal Reserve has not favored one party over another when making rate determinations​
  • The 10-year treasury yield also behaves independent of election cycles​

When Could Rates Go Down?​

  • Before 2000, interest rates were typically even higher than the are now, suggesting we are close to what many long-time investors consider normal​
  • The market will likely adjust to the interest rate environment before we see substantial rate cuts​

*Through September 13​
Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Federal Reserve​

Watch the Video Below

 

Filed Under: Research Brief

Two Forces Driving the CRE Outlook

September 11, 2023 by Marcus & Millichap Research Services

NEW LABOR MARKET DATA STRENGTHENS LIKELIHOOD OF SOFT LANDING​

Labor Market Growing, But At Subdued Pace​

  • The U.S. is on pace to add more than 2 million jobs in 2023, a slower rate than last year​
  • Slowed employment growth will help keep wage growth in-line, aiding the Fed’s inflation fight​

CRE Outlook Boosted If Soft Landing Achieved​

  • CRE absorption is strong during periods with this year’s level of job creation​
  • A soft landing would diminish upward pressure on interest rates, while raising consumer and business confidence, tailwinds for CRE demand and investment​

Federal Reserve Actions To Drive Economic Outlook​

  • The question is, will wage growth and inflation fall quick enough for interest rates to stop rising in 2023​
  • Wall Street does not expect a rate hike at the next Fed meeting, but is split on the outlook for EOY 2023​

*Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, BLS​

Watch the Video Below

 

Filed Under: Research Brief

How Natural Disasters Impact CRE Investors

September 5, 2023 by Marcus & Millichap Research Services

WHY GEOGRAPHIC DIVERSIFICATION IS CRITICAL TO CRE INVESTORS?​

Natural Disasters Increasing in Frequency and Severity​

  • The number of natural disasters has been increasing steadily over the last few decades​
  • The U.S. averaged 20 “Billion-Dollar-Plus” natural disasters per year for the last three years​

Diversification Can Mitigate Risk​

  • Geographically diversifying a real estate portfolio reduces risks of an entire portfolio being impacted by one event​
  • While insurance may mitigate the hard costs of a disaster, soft costs like time, short-term cash flow and the challenges of navigating the insurance claim process will still be incurred​

Natural Disasters are Pushing Insurance Rates Higher​

  • Apartment insurance rates increased by 33% last year – but not all areas have been affected the same.​

*Through 2Q​
Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, RealPage, Inc.​

Watch the Video Below

 

Filed Under: Research Brief

Are CRE Prices Still Too High

August 28, 2023 by Marcus & Millichap Research Services

WHY SOME INVESTORS ARE ON THE SIDELINES WHILE OTHERS SEE OPPORTUNITY​

Expectation Gap Shrinking But Still A Factor​

  • In general, buyer sentiment is that CRE pricing is still too high in the summer of 2023​
  • Sellers that need to act are moving to the market pricing to secure deals​

Significant Number Of Deals Are Penciling Despite Gap​

  • Nearly 30,000 CRE transactions occurred in the first half of 2023, highlighting solid liquidity during the slowdown​
  • Smaller deals involving private investors have made up a higher percentage of first half deals in 2023​

What Opportunity Are Buyers Seeing?​

  • Investors are tracking demographic trends, and some are determining the future gains outweigh the short-term rise in financing costs​
  • Today’s climate reinforces the importance of analyzing property and market trends when making decisions​

*Through 2Q​
Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Real Capital Analytics, CoStar Group, Inc.​

Watch the Video Below

 

Filed Under: Research Brief

What is the Impact of Rising Consumer Debt on CRE

August 21, 2023 by Marcus & Millichap Research Services

IS A CONSUMER DEBT CRISIS ON THE HORIZON?​

Media Focusing On Record High Consumer Debt​

  • Total household debt in the U.S. reached a record $17T in July, while revolving credit surpassed $1T ​
  • Inflation adjusting theses figures, brings consumer debt back into perspective​

U.S. Economy More Productive Than Ever​

  • Debt levels have risen, but so have incomes and GDP, increasing consumers ability to make debt payments​
  • Consumer loans as a percentage of GDP are trending lower than they have in the past 2 decades​

Debt Unlikely To Hold Back Demand In 2023​

  • If consumer confidence continues its upward pace, consumers willingness to spend and form new households should not be restricted by debt burdens​
  • Banking turmoil, Fed decisions, or any number of events could shake confidence, but the current trend is positive​

*Through 1Q​
Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System​

Watch the Video Below

 

Filed Under: Research Brief

Inflation, Sentiment, and the Impact on CRE

August 14, 2023 by Marcus & Millichap Research Services

INFLATION, SENTIMENT, AND THE IMPACT ON COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE​​

June Inflation Trending Higher, But Trend Is Positive​

  • Headline inflation rose to 3.2%, but the more important Core CPI number fell​
  • The housing component of CPI remains elevated, but is forecasted to fall, aiding the current trend further​

Brightened Outlook Boosting CRE Space Demand​

  • Confidence and sentiment measures for consumers, small businesses and CEOs are all rising in July​
  • Absorption is likely to rise across products if recession fears keep decreasing and individuals feel optimistic​

What To Expect in 2H 2023​

  • Wall Street is expecting the Fed to keep overnight rates flat through the December meeting​
  • If positive moment is sustained, it offers a strengthening CRE outlook

*Through 2Q; Small Business Optimism through July​
Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, University of Michigan, The Conference Board, NIFB ​

Watch the Video Below

 

Filed Under: Research Brief

  • Go to page 1
  • Go to page 2
  • Go to page 3
  • Interim pages omitted …
  • Go to page 26
  • Go to Next Page »

Primary Sidebar

Recent Posts

  • Will the 2024 Election Impact Interest Rates
  • Two Forces Driving the CRE Outlook
  • How Natural Disasters Impact CRE Investors
  • Are CRE Prices Still Too High
  • What is the Impact of Rising Consumer Debt on CRE

Archives

  • September 2023
  • August 2023
  • July 2023
  • June 2023
  • May 2023
  • April 2023
  • March 2023
  • February 2023
  • January 2023
  • December 2022
  • November 2022
  • October 2022
  • September 2022
  • August 2022
  • July 2022
  • June 2022
  • May 2022
  • April 2022
  • March 2022
  • February 2022
  • January 2022
  • December 2021
  • November 2021
  • October 2021
  • September 2021
  • August 2021
  • July 2021
  • June 2021
  • May 2021
  • April 2021
  • March 2021
  • February 2021
  • January 2021
  • December 2020
  • November 2020
  • October 2020
  • September 2020
  • August 2020
  • March 2020

Categories

  • Agent Opinion
  • Apartments
  • Client Webcast
  • Employment
  • Eviction Moratorium
  • Fox Business
  • GDP
  • Investor Sentiment Survey
  • M&M In the Media
  • Market Report
  • Multifamily
  • Multifamily
  • NYC Metro
  • Outlook Report
  • Research Brief
  • Retail
  • Self-Storage
  • Special Report

Footer

© 2023 Limon Net Leased Group

  • Listings
    • National Listings
    • NYC Metro Listings
  • Who We Are
  • 1031 Exchange
  • Research
  • Financing
  • Services
    • Advisory
    • Capital Markets
    • Marketing
    • Research
    • Technology
  • Contact

This information has been secured from sources we believe to be reliable, but we make no representations or warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy of the information. References to square footage or age are approximate. Buyer must verify the information and bears all risk for any inaccuracies. Any projections, opinions, assumptions or estimates used herein are for example purposes only and do not represent the current or future performance of the property. Marcus & Millichap Real Estate Investment Services is a service mark of Marcus & Millichap Real Estate Investment Services, Inc. © 2020 Marcus & Millichap and Limon Net Lease Group

Privacy Policy