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Examining the CRE Perception Gap

May 1, 2023 by Marcus & Millichap Research Services

Perception Gap Emerging in the CRE Market

Economic Indicators Show Strength Despite Recession Risk

  • 1Q GDP data shows a 1.1% annualized growth rate in 2023, in line with the Blue Chip consensus forecast of 1.2% this year
  • The U.S. economy also added more than 1 million jobs in the first 3 months of 2023, despite high-profile tech layoffs

KPI’s Are Strong for Most Asset Types

  • When compared to pre-pandemic averages, most property types are recording stronger fundamentals in 2023
  • Annual rent growth through 1Q exceeds the pre-pandemic average for all the major asset types besides office, with retail and industrial vacancy also lower in 1Q 2023

Office Presents Headwind, But Overall Outlook Bright

  • Office vacancy is up nearly 370 basis points from its 1Q 2019 level, with rent growth below the pre-pandemic average
  • The perception of a broad-based CRE reset being pushed by the media does not align with the current data, forming the perception gap in the market

*5-year period from 2015-2019; ADR growth for hotel
Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, CoStar Group, Inc, RealPage, Inc.

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Filed Under: Research Brief

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This information has been secured from sources we believe to be reliable, but we make no representations or warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy of the information. References to square footage or age are approximate. Buyer must verify the information and bears all risk for any inaccuracies. Any projections, opinions, assumptions or estimates used herein are for example purposes only and do not represent the current or future performance of the property. Marcus & Millichap Real Estate Investment Services is a service mark of Marcus & Millichap Real Estate Investment Services, Inc. © 2020 Marcus & Millichap and Limon Net Lease Group

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