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Holiday Retail Sales Outlook

November 20, 2023 by Marcus & Millichap Research Services

THE IMPACT OF SHIFTING LENDING STANDARDS ON CRE MARKETS​

Forecasts Predicting Record Breaking Holiday Season

  • ICSC and NRF are both anticipating 2023 holiday retail sales to rise between 3% and 4% over last year
  • When inflation-adjusting this data, retail sales expectations this season are the highest on record

Consumers Still Have Spending Capacity

  • The economy has added 2.9 million workers over the last year, while disposable income has also increased
  • This adds a tailwind for retail and industrial CRE space demand as businesses stage for increased consumption

Economic Outlook Still Solid

  • With the government postponing the budget deadline to January/February, and the Fed unlikely to raise rates, the 2024 economic outlook remains cautiously optimistic
  • The economist consensus favors slow but positive growth through 2024

* Forecast
Holiday Sales Include Non-Seasonally Adjusted Core Retail Sales for November and December
Excludes Auto, Gasoline and Restaurant Sales
Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, U.S. Census Bureau, National Retail Federation

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Filed Under: Research Brief, Retail

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This information has been secured from sources we believe to be reliable, but we make no representations or warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy of the information. References to square footage or age are approximate. Buyer must verify the information and bears all risk for any inaccuracies. Any projections, opinions, assumptions or estimates used herein are for example purposes only and do not represent the current or future performance of the property. Marcus & Millichap Real Estate Investment Services is a service mark of Marcus & Millichap Real Estate Investment Services, Inc. © 2020 Marcus & Millichap and Limon Net Lease Group

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