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Implications of Federal Reserve Rate Policy

March 20, 2023 by Marcus & Millichap Research Services

What The Economy’s “March Madness” Means for CRE Investors

Rising Rates Spark Bank Failures; Government Response Rapid

  • The banking industry recorded the 2nd and 3rd largest bank failure in U.S. history from March 10th to 12th, with Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank closing their doors
  • The FDIC has pledged to insure all deposits at Silicon Valley Bank and expand the discount window, limiting spillover effects into other parts of the economy and banking sector

Expectations For March Fed Meeting Shifting Rapidly

  • Prior to the banking crisis, expectations were for a 50 bps rise to the fed funds rate at the March 22nd meeting, based on Powell’s comments on Capital Hill
  • Wall Street has reversed course after the bank closures, with the expectation favoring a 25-bps lift in the overnight rates

Takeaways for Commercial Real Estate Investors

  • The slower pace of rate hikes will give CRE lenders and investors time to adjust and assess the market
  • Investment market is to remain choppy in the near-term, but a more stabilized interest rate outlook will create narrowing of the buy-sell gap

Through March 15
Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, CME Group

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Filed Under: Research Brief

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This information has been secured from sources we believe to be reliable, but we make no representations or warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy of the information. References to square footage or age are approximate. Buyer must verify the information and bears all risk for any inaccuracies. Any projections, opinions, assumptions or estimates used herein are for example purposes only and do not represent the current or future performance of the property. Marcus & Millichap Real Estate Investment Services is a service mark of Marcus & Millichap Real Estate Investment Services, Inc. © 2020 Marcus & Millichap and Limon Net Lease Group

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