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Is an Economic Recession Coming?

April 4, 2022 by Marcus & Millichap Research Services

Should Investors Prepare for an Incoming Recession?

Does a Yield Curve Inversion Signal the Next Recession?

  • Yield spread between the 2-yr and 10-yr treasuries briefly inverted last week, one signal of a possible recession
  • Another indicator, the 3-mnth and 10-yr rate spread, which takes more pressure to invert, has not flipped
  • Currently no guarantees of incoming recession

Greater Risk for Yield Curve Inversion Expected

  • Fed’s aggressive approach to tackle inflation involves raising interest rates 7 times this year
  • Could put upward pressure on short-term rates, increasing interest rate volatility and raise risk of yield curve inversion
  • Recession is possibility but should not be primary concern

What Investors Should Consider for Investment Strategies

  • Strong economic growth and low unemployment rate will help mitigate impact of a potential recession
  • Investors should instead factor rising inflation and interest rate hikes into their investment decisions
  • Consider CRE that can raise revenues to mitigate inflation and lock in fixed interest rates for loans

*Through March 31
Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Federal Reserve

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Filed Under: Research Brief

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This information has been secured from sources we believe to be reliable, but we make no representations or warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy of the information. References to square footage or age are approximate. Buyer must verify the information and bears all risk for any inaccuracies. Any projections, opinions, assumptions or estimates used herein are for example purposes only and do not represent the current or future performance of the property. Marcus & Millichap Real Estate Investment Services is a service mark of Marcus & Millichap Real Estate Investment Services, Inc. © 2020 Marcus & Millichap and Limon Net Lease Group

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