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Is The Economy Facing New Risks from Overstimulation?

May 17, 2021 by Marcus & Millichap Research Services

Are We Facing a Labor Shortage?

  • Retail sales jumped 15% above pre-recession levels and rising consumption is starting to stir inflation
  • As demand rises, companies are reporting labor shortages despite an elevated number of unemployed
  • About 4.1 million more people are unemployed now than before the pandemic; far below the 23M in April 2020

Disconnect Between Job Openings and Unemployment

  • Job openings reached an all-time high this March, at over 8.1M; previous peak was 7.6M in November 2018
  • Enhanced $300/week federal unemployment benefits disincentivize some people to work; run until September
  • Disproportionately affects Retail and Hotel workers

Is This a Concern for Commercial Real Estate Investors?

  • Staff shortages likely transitory; should settle by the Fall
  • Risk of overstimulation exists, but likely better than the alternative scenario of under-stimulation
  • Signs point to a faster recovery, which benefits all types of commercial real estate, even those facing headwinds
* Job openings through March; Unemployed through April
Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, BLS

Filed Under: Research Brief

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This information has been secured from sources we believe to be reliable, but we make no representations or warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy of the information. References to square footage or age are approximate. Buyer must verify the information and bears all risk for any inaccuracies. Any projections, opinions, assumptions or estimates used herein are for example purposes only and do not represent the current or future performance of the property. Marcus & Millichap Real Estate Investment Services is a service mark of Marcus & Millichap Real Estate Investment Services, Inc. © 2020 Marcus & Millichap and Limon Net Lease Group

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