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The Impact of Congressional Gridlock on CRE

December 5, 2022 by Marcus & Millichap Research Services

How Could the result of the 2022 Midterms Impact CRE?

Election Results Cause Split Congress

  • Republicans and Democrats will each control one chamber of Congress following inaugurations in 2023
  • Split governments generally pass fewer policy changes, resulting in fewer market disruptions

How Do Political Environments Impact CRE Returns?

  • Historically, real estate returns rise 10.8% on average during years with split sessions, a 250-bps premium over years with one party control
  • CRE returns recorded strong and weak during each party’s control, but have consistently been higher during periods with divided government

Implications for CRE Investors in 2023

  • Regardless of the impact of a policy, potential changes impact investors decision making
  • Investors could have 2 years to lock in strategies with few policy changes affecting their playbooks

*Through 3Q
Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, NCREIF

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Filed Under: Research Brief

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This information has been secured from sources we believe to be reliable, but we make no representations or warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy of the information. References to square footage or age are approximate. Buyer must verify the information and bears all risk for any inaccuracies. Any projections, opinions, assumptions or estimates used herein are for example purposes only and do not represent the current or future performance of the property. Marcus & Millichap Real Estate Investment Services is a service mark of Marcus & Millichap Real Estate Investment Services, Inc. © 2020 Marcus & Millichap and Limon Net Lease Group

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