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Three Factors Driving Investor Uncertainty

January 30, 2023 by Marcus & Millichap Research Services

What Factors Are Driving Uncertainty in CRE Markets?

Prolonged Inflation and Rate Hikes Present Recession Risk

  • Inflation and aggressive fed rate hikes have eased, making a 25 bps rate hike likely at the Feb. 1 meeting
  • Although recession risk has moderated, roughly 50% of economists still expect a recession during 2023

Despite Tech Layoffs, Labor Market Still Exceptionally Tight

  • Attention grabbing headlines surrounding layoffs at Microsoft, Google, and others can foster uncertainty, but the unemployment rate remains at a 50-year low
  • Overall, the U.S. economy added nearly 225,000 new jobs in December, and still has over 10.5M job openings

What This Means For CRE Markets

  • If the economy can avoid a major recession in 2023, a shift in sentiment could lead to a revival of apartment, retail, and industrial space demand
  • Underlying data paints a more positive picture than some of the sensationalist media coverage

*Unemployed through December; Job openings through November
Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, BLS

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Filed Under: Research Brief

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This information has been secured from sources we believe to be reliable, but we make no representations or warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy of the information. References to square footage or age are approximate. Buyer must verify the information and bears all risk for any inaccuracies. Any projections, opinions, assumptions or estimates used herein are for example purposes only and do not represent the current or future performance of the property. Marcus & Millichap Real Estate Investment Services is a service mark of Marcus & Millichap Real Estate Investment Services, Inc. © 2020 Marcus & Millichap and Limon Net Lease Group

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