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What the Russian Oil Ban Means for Real Estate

March 14, 2022 by Marcus & Millichap Research Services

Will the Russian Oil Ban Spillover to the U.S. Economy?

Boycott of Russian Oil to Further Raise Energy Costs

  • U.S. announced unilateral boycott of Russian oil, which makes up less than 10% of U.S. oil imports
  • Plans to cover oil shortfall will take time to realize; temporary solutions unlikely to keep oil price low
  • Impact already being felt with elevated gas prices, expected to boost inflation by 1%-2% this year

Greater Inflation Increases Economic Risks

  • Higher inflation puts upward pressure on interest rates; likely to slow economic growth in 2022 and 2023
  • Economists still forecast 2022 economic growth greater than 3%; concerns for potential recession growing

How Can CRE Investors Prepare for Turbulence/Uncertainty?

  • Positioning into MOB or Apartments can capitalize on demographic trends to ride out possible recession
  • Self-Storage performed well through last two recessions and benefitted from pandemic-induced lifestyle changes
  • STNL Retail good defensive asset with cap rates running in 5%-7% range; Industrial remains strong in current cycle

*As of March 07
Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Energy Information Administration

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This information has been secured from sources we believe to be reliable, but we make no representations or warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy of the information. References to square footage or age are approximate. Buyer must verify the information and bears all risk for any inaccuracies. Any projections, opinions, assumptions or estimates used herein are for example purposes only and do not represent the current or future performance of the property. Marcus & Millichap Real Estate Investment Services is a service mark of Marcus & Millichap Real Estate Investment Services, Inc. © 2020 Marcus & Millichap and Limon Net Lease Group

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