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What the Yield Curve Inversion Means for CRE

October 31, 2022 by Marcus & Millichap Research Services

What Yield Curve Inversion Means for CRE Markets

3-Month Treasury Yield Rises Above The 10-Year

  • The 3-month and 10-year treasury yield curve inverted last week, signaling heightened risk of an impending recession
  • An inverted yield curve is not a foolproof indicator. A recession followed 8 of the last 10 inversions

Expectations Point Toward A Mild Downturn If One Occurs

  • Economists continue to forecast very mild decreases in economic growth for the first two quarters of 2023
  • The most significant factor influencing recession risk has been hawkish Federal Reserve policy in response to elevated inflation

CRE Investors Should Keep Long-Term Outcomes In Mind

  • Intense media discussion of downside risk can weigh on investor sentiment, often pushing investors to the sidelines, but downturns are followed by growth that generally lifts CRE performance
  • The weakened short-term economic outlook offers investors an opportunity to calibrate their strategies to capitalize on the next expansion cycle

*Through October 27
Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Federal Reserve

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Filed Under: Research Brief

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This information has been secured from sources we believe to be reliable, but we make no representations or warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy of the information. References to square footage or age are approximate. Buyer must verify the information and bears all risk for any inaccuracies. Any projections, opinions, assumptions or estimates used herein are for example purposes only and do not represent the current or future performance of the property. Marcus & Millichap Real Estate Investment Services is a service mark of Marcus & Millichap Real Estate Investment Services, Inc. © 2020 Marcus & Millichap and Limon Net Lease Group

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