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Why Investors Should Look Below the Surface

June 26, 2023 by Marcus & Millichap Research Services

How Investors Find Opportunities by Looking past Macro Trends

Data Drives Decision Making

  • Exceptional population growth is occurring in the Sun Belt and nearby states, boosting CRE performance
  • As a result, a heightened portion of CRE investment and development is targeting these areas

Macro-Trends Are Important But Not The Whole Picture

  • Strong demographics boost CRE demand in the Sunbelt, but fundamentals vary from submarket to submarket
  • Investors should remember to dig under the surface when making decisions even if macro data looks strong

The Best Areas In Hard-Hit Metros Record Strong Gains

  • Even in San Francisco there are submarkets, like North San Mateo County, where office vacancy is more than 1,500 bps below the metro average
  • Metros recording weaker positive trends will often surprise investors that look beyond market level data

*Five-year period: 2023 to 2027
Bubble size correlates to absolute population change
Forecast using Moody’s baseline scenario as of May 2023
Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, U.S. Census Bureau, Moody’s Analytics​

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Filed Under: Research Brief

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This information has been secured from sources we believe to be reliable, but we make no representations or warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy of the information. References to square footage or age are approximate. Buyer must verify the information and bears all risk for any inaccuracies. Any projections, opinions, assumptions or estimates used herein are for example purposes only and do not represent the current or future performance of the property. Marcus & Millichap Real Estate Investment Services is a service mark of Marcus & Millichap Real Estate Investment Services, Inc. © 2020 Marcus & Millichap and Limon Net Lease Group

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